Description
OPPORTUNITY DETAILS
The new equipment would allow your company to manufacture a critical component in-house instead of buying it from a supplier. This capability would help you stabilize your supply chain, which has suffered from some irregularities and quality issues in the past. It could also positively impact profitability through the absorption of fixed costs since this new machine will have plenty of excess capacity. There may even be a possibility that the company could leverage this capability to create a new external revenue stream by providing services to other companies.
The company has been growing steadily over the past 5 years, and the financials and prospects look good. Your CEO has asked you to run the numbers. After doing some digging into the business, you have gathered information on the following
The estimated purchase price for the equipment required to move the operation in-house would be $860,000. Additional net working capital to support production (in the form of cash used in Inventory, AR net of AP) would be needed in the amount of $42,000 per year starting in year 0 and through all years of the project to support production as raw materials will be required in year 0 and all years to run the new equipment and produce components to replace those purchased from the vendor.
The current spending on this component (i.e., annual spend pool) is $1,600,000. The estimated cash flow savings of bringing the process in-house is 25% or annual savings of $400,000. This includes the additional labor and overhead costs required.
Finally, the equipment required is anticipated to have a somewhat short useful life, as a new wave of technology is on the horizon. Therefore, it is anticipated that the equipment will be sold after the end of the project (the last year of generated cash flow) for $80,000 (i.e., the terminal value).
As part of your research, you have sought input from several stakeholders. Each has raised important points to consider in your analysis and recommendation. Some of the points and assumptions are purely financial. Others touch on additional concerns and opportunities.
1. Aisha, your colleague from Accounting, recommends using the base assumptions above: 5-year project life, flat annual savings, and a 10% discount rate. Aisha does not feel the equipment will have any terminal value due to advancements in technology.
2. Bruno from Sales is convinced that this capability would create a new revenue stream that could significantly offset operating expenses. He recommends savings that grow each year: 5-year project life, 12% discount rate, and an 6% annual savings growth in years 2 through 5. In other words, instead of assuming savings stay flat, assume that year 2 will be 106% of year 1, year 3 will be 106% of year 2, and so on. Bruno feels that the stated terminal value of $80,000 is reasonable and uses it in his calculations.
3. Chan from Engineering believes we should use a higher Discount Rate because of the risk of this type of project. As such, he is recommending a 5-year project life and flat annual savings. Chan suggests that even though the equipment is brand new, the updated production process could have a negative impact on other parts of the overall manufacturing costs. He argues that, while it is difficult to quantify the potential negative impacts, to account for the risk, a 14% discount rate should be used. As an engineer, Chan feels that the stated terminal value is low based on experience and recommends a $100,000 terminal value.
4. Devi, the Product Manager, is convinced the new capability will allow better quality control and on-time delivery and that it will last longer than 5 years. He recommends using a 7 Year Equipment Life (which means a 7-year project and that savings will continue for 7 years), flat annual savings, and an 11% discount rate. In other words, assume that the machine will last 2 more years and deliver 2 more years of savings. Devi also feels the equipment will have an estimated terminal value of $50,000 at the end of its 7-year useful life as it will be utilized longer, thus having less value at the end of the project and savings.
5. Eddy, the head of Operations, is concerned that instead of stabilizing the supply chain, making the component will just add another process to be managed and will distract from the existing core competencies in the factory. He feels the company should focus on improving communication and supply chain management with its current vendor, and he feels confident he can negotiate a price reduction of 5% off the annual outsourcing cost of $1,600,000 if he lets it be known we are considering taking over production of the component. As there is little risk associated with Eddy’s proposal due to no upfront capital requirements, a lower risk-free discount rate of 6% would be appropriate. Eddy believes that the price reduction from the current vendor will last for five years. (NOTE: because there is no “investment,” the Nominal Payback, Discounted Payback, and IRR metrics are not meaningful. Simply provide the NPV of the annual savings cash flows).
INSTRUCTIONS PART A: DATA CALCULATIONS
Using the data presented above and (ignoring the extraneous information) for this profit and supply chain improvement project, calculate each of the following (where applicable):
Nominal Payback
Discounted Payback
Net Present Value
Internal Rate of Return
Scenario
Nominal
Payback
Discounted Payback
Net Present Value
Internal Rate of Return
#1: Aisha
#2: Bruno
#3: Chan
#4: Devi
#5: Eddy
N/A
N/A
N/A
SUBMISSION REQUIREMENTS
Present your calculations and results in the Capital Budgeting Spreadsheet (an Excel file) provided for this assignment. Summarize your calculations in a Summary tab that looks like the table above.
Note: Be sure to show your detailed calculations. If you get something wrong, you may still be able to get partial credit.
INSTRUCTIONS PART B: RECOMMENDATIONS
After completing the calculations for all scenarios, create a brief memo to the CEO outlining your committee’s recommendations. You may organize the memo as you see fit, but it must include the following:
A clear opening statement of your recommendation for or against the project.
A brief synopsis of the processes and factors that led to your recommendations.
What information did you gather, and how did you get it?
From whom did you seek input, and why?
A summary of the strategic benefits and risks in pursuing (or not pursuing) this project, including:
Highlights of the main data points that support your position
Acknowledgment of the data points that oppose your argument
Identification of open/unresolved items
Identification of the scenario that, from a purely financial perspective, represents the most accurate estimate of the anticipated results and your rationale as to why.
Identification of non-financial elements that need to be considered for the recommended scenario.
Any assumptions in project economics can have a significant impact on the result. Identify 3 financial elements/assumptions in your analysis that would make this project financially unattractive. Be as transparent and candid as possible. What would have to be true for this to be a bad investment?
A summary restating your recommendation and key action items.